Earnings-call mention odds
Model probability that a company says a term on its next call (presence on recent calls, recency-weighted, plus same-day press release when available) vs. Kalshi prices.
| Call | Company | Term | Model | Bid | Ask | Said on | Paper side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | AI / Artificial Intelligence | 0.11 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | AI / Artificial Intelligence | 0.14 | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0/3 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Hike / Hiked | 0.11 | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Delinquency | 0.33 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 1/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | A321XLR | 0.11 | 0.59 | 0.62 | 0/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Tariff | 0.77 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 3/4 | yes |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Recession | 0.46 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 2/4 | yes |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | Holiday | 0.29 | 0.61 | 0.65 | 1/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Iran / Middle East | 0.11 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | World Cup | 0.54 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 2/4 | yes |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | ATC / Air Traffic Control | 0.11 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 0/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Private Market | 0.14 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0/3 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Buyback / Buy Back | 0.11 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Buyback / Buy Back | 0.14 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0/3 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Tailwind | 0.86 | 0.63 | 0.66 | 3/3 | yes |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Agentic | 0.34 | 0.54 | 0.58 | 1/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Basel | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0/3 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Merrill | 0.75 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 3/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | Tariff | 0.28 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1/4 | yes |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Investment Grade | 0.64 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 2/3 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | CRJ450 | 0.32 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 1/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | Weather | 0.66 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 3/4 | yes |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Tokenized / Tokenization | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0/3 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Private Credit | 0.69 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 2/3 | yes |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Pipeline | 0.70 | 0.82 | 0.86 | 3/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Inflation | 0.76 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 3/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Zero Hash | 0.38 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 1/3 | yes |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Rate Cut / Cut Rate | 0.11 | 0.20 | 0.39 | 0/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | Newark | 0.97 | 0.81 | 0.89 | 4/4 | yes |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | Nonstop / Non-Stop | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0/4 | no |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Middle East / Iran | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.24 | 0/3 | |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | SpaceX | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0/3 | |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Oil | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0/3 | |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | Coastliner | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 2/4 | |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Recession | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0/3 | |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | Chase | 0.72 | 0.64 | 0.69 | 3/4 | |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | Starlink | 0.97 | 0.94 | 0.95 | 4/4 | |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Trump / President | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0/4 | |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | Oil | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0/4 | |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Parametric | 0.95 | 0.94 | 0.95 | 3/3 | |
| 2026-10-14 | MS | Galaxy Digital | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0/3 | |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | Relax Row | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.57 | 2/4 | |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | Oil | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.84 | 2/4 | |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | Middle East | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.73 | 3/4 | |
| 2026-10-14 | UAL | American Airlines | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0/4 |
166 more open markets appear once at least 3 past transcripts are available for the company.
Event contracts are risky; this is research, not advice. Transcripts and settlement sources can differ.