Methodology

1. Finding threats before the news

We query SEC EDGAR full-text search daily for competitive-intent and AI-vulnerability language ("go after their customers", "disintermediate", "agentic commerce", "AI overviews" ...), score passages with a transparent lexicon, then have a language model classify the passage (who threatens whom, mechanism, timeline, explicitness, credibility) with the quote copied verbatim from the filing.

2. How much is already priced in

For each theme we take the first-order losers' median move since the catalyst (vs. SPY) as the yardstick. A second-order name with exposure e "should" move by that yardstick times e divided by the first-order exposure; priced in is the fraction of that move already realised and unpriced = exposure × (1 − priced in).

3. Paper trading rules

Signals are written to the ledger before any order. Options are defined-risk debit spreads (45-120 days), filled against 15-minute-delayed quotes after the order time, paying half the bid-ask spread per leg plus fees. Stops, targets and time exits are fixed in advance. Event contracts pay the venue's taker fee.

4. What can go wrong

Exposure scores start as human priors; filings language is not destiny; markets can stay mispriced longer than options last; delayed quotes and paper fills flatter illiquid names. We publish losers too.