The Daily Radar, Oct 13, 2026

The AI-disruption trades the market hasn't connected yet.

1. The unpriced list

Names exposed to a live AI-disruption theme that have not moved like it yet:

• ECHO (Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless, long): exposure 0.45, moved -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~0% priced in. EchoStar (ticker SATS->ECHO on 2026-06-24) holds SpaceX stock from its spectrum sales
• ZD (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +2.6% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. affiliate commerce content (coupons, reviews) loses clicks
• IBTA (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +11.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. receipt/offer cash-back tied to human shopping journeys
• MTCH (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.40, moved +0.4% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. subscription dating apps; agent-mediated discovery and cancellation
• TRIP (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.55, moved -7.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~32% priced in. review/meta-search clicks bypassed by agents

2. New threat statements in filings

• Nothing new flagged today.

3. Model portfolio (paper)

• New call: GSAT short (Starlink Mobile). -1.0% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~20% priced in.
• New call: IRDM short (Starlink Mobile). -2.5% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~40% priced in.
• New call: ZD short (AI shopping agents). +3.3% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
• New call: IBTA short (AI shopping agents). +12.8% vs SPY since 2026-09-08, ~0% priced in.
• Kalshi: 13 paper bets on BAC's earnings call (2026-10-14) (6 placed by a since-fixed bug, kept in the P&L), e.g. 'Tariff' YES at 33c (model 76%); 'Recession' YES at 14c (model 46%).
• Kalshi: 9 paper bets on MS's earnings call (2026-10-14), e.g. 'Basel' NO at 61c (model 14%); 'Private Market' NO at 63c (model 14%).
• Kalshi: 2 paper bets on UAL's earnings call (2026-10-14), e.g. 'Weather' YES at 53c (model 66%); 'Nonstop / Non-Stop' NO at 81c (model 11%).
• Filled: short GSAT at $82.60 (shadow (stock) book).
• Filled: short IRDM at $46.68 (shadow (stock) book).
• Filled: short ZD at $57.82 (shadow (stock) book).
• Filled: short IBTA at $43.24 (shadow (stock) book).
• Paper books: options $1,000.00 / Kalshi $484.09 (24 open) / shadow (stock) $999.20 (4 open).

4. Earnings-call mention odds (Kalshi)

• BAC 'Tariff' (2026-10-14): model 0.77 vs ask 0.25 - said on 3/4 recent calls
• BAC 'Rate Cut / Cut Rate' (2026-10-14): model 0.89 vs ask 0.4 - said on 4/4 recent calls
• UAL 'A321XLR' (2026-10-14): model 0.11 vs ask 0.62 - said on 0/4 recent calls
• BAC 'Iran / Middle East' (2026-10-14): model 0.11 vs ask 0.45 - said on 0/4 recent calls
• UAL 'Holiday' (2026-10-14): model 0.29 vs ask 0.65 - said on 1/4 recent calls

5. Watchlist scoreboard (no signals)

• SNDK (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +509.5% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
• MU (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +219.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
• BE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +188.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
• STX (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +157.2% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
• LITE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +153.1% vs SPY since 2025-12-31

Research and education only - not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or event contract. Model portfolios are paper (simulated) unless explicitly labelled live, and past or simulated results do not guarantee future results. We disclose our own positions and never trade ahead of what we publish.